CATALONIA -- Scottish independence: Why are many Catalans desperately hoping that Scotland will vote 'yes'? - UK Politics - UK - The Independent
In just over a month's time, a country that probably doesn't want independence from another will get a vote on whether to separate, and a fiercely autonomous region elsewhere that almost certainly does want to secede from a larger nation won't be allowed to. Such is Europe in 2014.
By 19 September, if scores of polls are to be believed, the question of self-determination for Scotland will be buried for generations. Not a single census on how Scots will vote in the first plebiscite on independence has suggested that they will support their government and create arguably the greatest constitutional crisis the UK has ever known.
Meanwhile, just over 1,000 miles away, the regional administration in Barcelona, which can point to a wealth of evidence to suggest that Catalans would at least like the opportunity to express their opinion, will continue to be frustrated. A week before the referendum in Scotland, hundreds of thousands, perhaps as many as a million, are again expected on the streets of Barcelona to demand that their voice be heard. And as before, the government in Madrid will likely ignore them.
In November, in an unofficial two-question 'consultation' organised by the regional government, Catalans will be asked: Would you like a vote on self-determination? If yes, would you like an independent Catalonia? Despite the Spanish government insisting that it will not be recognised, indeed that the very event will be considered unlawful, poll data suggests that a majority will vote 'yes, yes'.
In Barcelona, David Cameron is regarded as something of hero – a true democrat – for allowing Scots to vote. Why, they ask, will the Spanish prime minister in Madrid, Mariano Rajoy, whose politics are similar to Cameron's, not afford Catalans the same privilege?
In Scotland, however, where the Prime Minister has hardly been seen (he chose to make his first set-piece speech making the case for the union from the former Olympic site in east London), people gleefully point that there are more giant pandas than there are Conservative Members of Parliament. For the record, there are two giant pandas in Scotland. And both are infinitely more popular than Cameron.
The answer to the Catalans' question is simple: Scots have been granted their referendum because a pro-Union Westminster government doesn't think they will vote in favour. In Barcelona, Rajoy knows that the Catalans cannot be similarly trusted.
But both men have a problem. If Scots do buck expectations and support independence – a poll at the end of July suggested the undecideds were leaning towards a split – Cameron will almost certainly have to resign. The man who, after 307 years, couldn't keep the Union together could not possibly be expected to sort out the resulting mess. The problems of the UK's nuclear weapons (based in Scotland), the Queen; sterling; borders; international treaties and so on could not be trusted to a man who had allowed Scotland to vote. And lost.
Rajoy has a bigger problem. At No 10, David Cameron can cross his fingers and hope that the problem will go away, and it probably will. Despite a fairly lacklustre 'no' campaign (a factor that is persuading some ardent unionists in Scotland to consider voting 'yes'), Scotland is likely to remain British.
Rajoy doesn't have the luxury of a definitive referendum. Everyone knows that Catalonia – for a long time one of Spain's most important sources of revenue – will probably back independence in its unofficial poll, and so the Madrid government hides behind the Spanish constitution, which apparently doesn't allow for Catalans to decide their own future. And the row becomes ever more entrenched and bitter.
A pro-independence mosaic at the Nou Camp in Barcelona (AP)
