Catalogne : les conditions d'une crise majeure avec Madrid sont réunies
Catalogne : les conditions d'une crise majeure avec Madrid sont réunies
Carles Puidgemont, président du gouvernement catalan, choisira-t-il la voie de l'unilatéralité ?
(Crédits : ALBERT GEA)
If they want to avoid new elections uncertain and continue the process of "disconnection" of Catalonia of the Spanish state, preliminary independence, the two groups are condemned to agree. However, the agreement could be precisely on the question of the method of "disconnection", ie an acceleration of the process of independence, the only point on which finally actually hear parties Junts Pel Sí and CUP. And this agreement could lead to the recognition of the need for a unilateral approach. The Independentists might as well accept to reject the Spanish legal order and create their own legal order with the support of the majority of Catalans. This transfer of legality will be fulfilled by unilateral independence referendum (RUI) which, from the sanction of the Spanish law, will allow the birth of the Catalan State in case of majority for independence.
How unilateralism has emerged in the independence camp
This idea of RUI has long been rejected by Junts Pel Sí component parties remained committed to respect the Spanish law and the idea that we could reach an agreement "at the Scottish" with Madrid in which Spain accept the referendum and would commit to respect the outcome. But this scenario seems less and less likely. The position of the government of Mariano Rajoy has always been not to discuss "with those who want to break Spain." Each step towards independence has been brought before the Tribunal Spanish Constitutional (TC) has regularly declared illegal the decisions of independence. This is particularly the case of the November 9, 2014 referendum was "advisory" (not binding like RUI). The success of the Popular Party (PP) of Mariano Rajoy in the Spanish elections of 26 June and the refusal of the PSOE Socialists to accept the idea of a referendum in discussions of forming a government after the elections of 20 December seems to have convinced many of the moderate Independentists the legality of the Spanish option was a dead end.
Therefore, since the majority independence could explode, an idea made its way: to restore a cement with the RUI and integrate in the new "road map" towards independence that Carles Puigdemont will present at the trust issue raised in Parliament. So that in the final report by the Process Studies Constituent Commission of the Catalan Parliament presented on 18 July Junts Pel Sí and the UPC have agreed on a 'democratic exercise unilateral mechanism ". While some elements of the majority, especially within ERC, still reluctant to accept this one-sidedness. But she made clear its path, including within the Catalan government itself.
The government is ready to discuss the one-sidedness
Thus, Wednesday 20 July, the spokesman of the Generalitat, Neus Munté, said that the "debate on the issue of trust will address the RUI and other mechanisms to improve the road map". In short, the Catalan government is ready to discuss sidedness. And, another sign that does not deceive Thursday Carles Puigdemont announced that he will meet CUP next week to prepare the question of confidence, while since the beginning of June, he refused any contact with the training, he said, had destroyed much independence. Certainly nothing is done yet: Junts Pel Sí remains divided, as we have said, and the CUP may still be too greedy in demanding a precise process, with a date for the referendum when Junts Pel Sí would do remain the principle.
The European issue
Everything seems however to implement a new strategy for independence. The time is, however, quite well chosen. Sí Junts Pel has always supported the idea - and that's a big difference with the Eurosceptics of the CUP - that the European Union would intervene in the debate over independence to support the choice of the majority of Catalans. After Brexit, the support shown by the Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker at the first Scottish minister Nicola Sturgeon has restored hopes in this field. quickly extinguished hopes since Mariano Rajoy, supported in this by Paris, quickly warned that he would refuse any clean way to Scotland in negotiations Brexit. But nonetheless, the Scottish nationalists continue to advocate for a new independence referendum if a special status with London is not found. A referendum could be this time unilateral.
What then will the EU? Does it reject Scottish RUI "did for her"? But if she agrees to recognize the result and then start accession negotiations with a unilaterally independent Scotland, it clearly open an opportunity for Catalan step in the same direction. Similarly, if Catalonia entered a unilateral approach before Scotland, the EU will be faced with a serious dilemma: reject the Catalan experience would be to reject any unilateral on the part of Scotland. But the Scottish event is an important lever for the EU in the negotiations of the post-Brexit. In short, one-sidedness is also a way to force the Europeans to deal with the Catalan question she strives to ignore for now. This is also one reason that could push the sectors "moderates" of the independence movement to join the RUI.
The Spanish Constitutional Court threat
In Madrid, we obviously try everything to prevent this one-sidedness. Already, the Constitutional Tribunal (TC) responded July 19 to the report of the Study Commission of the constituent process by requiring the Catalan Parliament office does not include on the agenda the vote on this text. Elements of this text are indeed, as the TC, "absolutely infeasible" because they represent the "logout process" under the motion of the Catalan Parliament on 9 November 2015 was canceled by the TC. Clearly, the TC judge already unconstitutional "unilateral mechanism" provided by the report.
The office of the Catalan Parliament followed the recommendations of the TC that threatened its members prosecuted. The report is not listed on the agenda of the plenary meetings next week. But the agenda may be amended at the request of two parliamentary groups or one fifth of the deputies. Everyone expects it to be finally debated and voted. This Thursday, July 21, the president of the parliamentary group of the UPC, Mireia Boya, said the findings of the commission will be "passed this week." This would then set in stone reunification-independence around the notion of unilateralism.
possible escalation
Therefore, the showdown with Madrid could engage quickly. The president of the PP group in the Catalan Parliament, Xavier Albiol has warned that "we probably witnessing the last warning of the TC". And threatening that if the Catalan Parliament passes further, it could "pose a risk to self and serve the suspension of certain institutions." The threat is clear: if the Catalan deputies accept the path of unilateralism, the Spanish government could trigger Article 155 of the Spanish Constitution which empowers the central government to "take the necessary steps to return an autonomous community in the performance of its obligations. " Mariano Rajoy, who needs the abstention of the PSOE to remain president of the Spanish government, this could be an argument. If the PSOE denied the nomination, the Socialists will become "traitors to Spain" leaving the country without a government before the Independentists Catalans. Madrid has no reason not to play climbing. In this case, the showdown will be engaged and the Catalan government will have no choice but to submit or enter the Spanish illegality, trying to establish, by a unilateral gesture of a new Catalan own legality. All conditions of a major crisis in September in Catalonia are fulfilled.
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