CATALONIA
" When Catalonia declared independence from Spain in October, it was
the first time an elected government in Western Europe had declared
independence from an unwilling host state since Ireland's 1919
declaration of independence from Great Britain. Civil war did not follow
Catalonia's declaration as it did Ireland's.
Deposed Catalan
President Carles Puigdemont says he backed down from making the
declaration effective because he wanted to avoid violence. As a result,
Spain has reasserted its authority and imprisoned key figures in the
independence movement, but polls show Catalans' support for independence
has only risen.
Meanwhile, in Iraq, the Kurdistan Regional
Government held a referendum on independence, which had a high turnout
and passed overwhelmingly; the Iraqi government responded quickly with
military force, defeating Kurdish forces and driving them back from
disputed territory.
How should central governments treat
independence movements? My own research shows that central governments
can limit the uncertainty and violence over secession campaigns when
they provide a legal path to independence. The most recent scenes in
Catalonia and Iraqi Kurdistan only serve to further confirm this
finding. When central governments crack down on independence movements,
political and economic instability and even violence are the usual
outcomes. "
