CATALONIA -- Catalan Academics Press Separatist Drive - WSJ.com
Catalan Academics Press Separatist Drive - WSJ.com
BARCELONA—In the sulfurous debate over the future of Spain's wealthy Catalonia region,
Xavier Sala-i-Martin
is the most notable and quotable member of a self-styled truth squad of pro-independence Catalan economists.
When
the head of the American Chamber of Commerce in Spain warned in October
that talk of a breakup was making foreign investors skittish, Mr.
Sala-i-Martin retorted on Catalan radio that Spain was a "midget market"
and globalized Catalonia would thrive on its own.
Amid
rumors that elderly Catalans would lose their public pensions in a
split, the economist went on his blog to assail the talk as a lie,
adding that an independent Catalonia might be able to raise pensions by
10%.
"Since 1800, 22 former Spanish
colonies have become independent," said Mr. Sala-i-Martin, a Columbia
University professor who co-wrote an economics textbook and helped
develop the Global Competitiveness Report for this past week's World
Economic Forum in Davos. "None of them regrets it."
Mr.
Sala-i-Martin is one of six respected Catalan academics who have
stepped from the ivory tower into a political battle with high stakes
for Spain and the rest of the European Union—including its common
currency.
They are high-profile protagonists in
a long-running public debate over what Catalonia, the so-called factory
of Spain, could gain or lose from breaking away.
Buoyed
by polls showing majority support for secession, the Catalan parliament
in Barcelona this month voted to hold a referendum on Nov. 9. The
central government in Madrid has vowed to block a vote, which it says
would be unconstitutional, but that hasn't quieted the debate.
On
blogs, in interviews and in meetings with business and citizen groups,
the six academics argue that Spain's system of sharing tax revenues
among the 17 regions shortchanges Catalonia by about €16 billion ($22
billion) annually. That amounts to more than €2,000 per inhabitant, or
around 8% of Catalonia's output, based on public tax and investment
data, the academics say.
They argue that
the northeastern region of 7.5 million people could become not only a
viable country, but quite possibly an economic juggernaut.
Catalonia,
which has a distinctive culture and language, has long had a strained
relationship with Madrid, but the collapse of Spain's economy in 2008
has left regions scrambling for resources and brought tensions to a
boil.
The scholars—five economists and a
political scientist from Harvard, Princeton, Columbia, the London
School of Economics and prominent institutions—call themselves the
Wilson Initiative,
after U.S. President
Woodrow Wilson,
a champion of national self-determination.
While
acknowledging their influence, some other economists say the big-name
professors overstate the potential benefits of independence while
understating the transition costs and the risk that Spain could splinter
further.
The critics note that while
sales of goods from Catalan companies to the rest of the world—€58
billion in 2012—surpassed their €49 billion in sales to the rest of
Spain that year, Spain still accounts for a massive chunk.
Mr.
Sali-i-Martin "did serious work once but he's become frivolous," said
Francesc Trillas,
an economist at the Autonomous University of Barcelona, who
favors giving Catalonia greater autonomy but not independence.
Mr.
Sala-i-Martin says he has gotten inured to criticism from opponents of
independence, and that the "tons of hate" he gets from Spanish
nationalists on
Twitter
TWTR -1.69%
and elsewhere is a small price for the gratification he got when
he heard elderly callers on Catalan talk radio quoting his arguments.
"I translate complicated concepts for regular people to understand," he said.
In
addition to serving as go-to economist for the local media, Mr.
Sala-i-Martin is also widely known for his connection to the Barcelona
soccer club, where he once served as treasurer. His wardrobe of 200
brightly colored jackets garner additional attention. "I didn't want to
be a slave to fashion so I invented my own," he explains.
Activists
for Catalan independence say he lends intellectual legitimacy to their
cause. "Spain is trying to frighten Catalans about the economic
consequences of independence, but Sala-i-Martin is able to rebut those
arguments with numbers and the authority of his position," said
Eduardo Reyes,
head of a pro-independence group called Sumate.
The Wilson Initiative has drawn the attention of economists elsewhere, though few publicly embrace its arguments.
"If
you were to ask in which ways economists today are having the most
influence on the world, this movement would be close to the top of the
list," George Mason University economist
Tyler Cowen
wrote in his widely read "Marginal Revolution" blog.
But
he added: "I am still waiting to hear why Catalonian independence
wouldn't bring the fiscal death knell of current Spain, and thus also
the collapse of current euro-zone arrangements and perhaps also a
euro-zone-wide depression."
Other analysts say some of the Wilson academics too often speak as Catalans first and economists second.
Luis Garicano,
a professor at the London School of Economics from central Spain,
said exchanges about Catalonia on the blog he founded were "some of the
least pleasant and most aggressive debates we have ever had…as emotions
quickly ruled the discussion."
He also favors more autonomy without independence.
In
an interview, Mr. Sala-i-Martin said it is too late to patch up the
relationship with Spain and that Catalans "aren't going to be satisfied
with accepting some cookie crumbs from Madrid." Spain recently emerged
from more than two years of recession, but Mr. Sala-i-Martin questions
whether the recovery is sustainable in light of Spain's massive debt and
chronic problems with competitiveness. Meanwhile, he asserted,
corruption scandals rippling through the Spanish leadership class reveal
a country in the throes of an "institutional collapse."
Thus, the moment for independence is now, he insists.
Spanish
government officials have said they are vigorously pursuing all
wrongdoing that comes to light, and Spain's institutions are stronger
for their efforts.
Similar economic
issues are being debated in other separatist-minded regions. Scotland is
set to vote on independence from the U.K. in September.
Top
EU officials have stated repeatedly that any part of any member state
that becomes independent would be automatically outside the EU. If it
wanted to join, its application would have to be ratified by the rest.
Mr.
Sala-i-Martin said the EU would be hard-pressed to follow through on
such tough talk since the many large European companies with operations
in Catalonia would resist the loss of free-trade benefits. Many Spanish
exporters also need to pass through Catalonia to get their goods to
Northern Europe, he noted.
"If Spain
imposes barriers, there's going to be thousands of kilometers lined with
tomatoes rotting on roads trying to get into Catalonia," he said.
While
the economics are hotly contested, no one disputes Mr. Sala-i-Martin's
academic credentials. "This guy knows a lot about economic growth and I
can testify he's good at it," said Nobel Prize laureate
Robert Lucas
of the University of Chicago. As for the independence issue, Mr.
Lucas said, "I'm not going to touch that."
