CATALONIA -- Catalan National Assembly – Foreign Assemblies
Catalan National Assembly – Foreign Assemblies
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Latest polls indicate Yes-Yes would earn 61% in Nov 9 independence referendum.
47% of the entire census would vote Yes-Yes, according to the CEO, 11.5% would abstain, 30.8% would vote No or Yes-No.
The latest polls organized by the Catalan government find that 47% of
the entire body of voters would vote Yes-Yes on the November 9th
referendum on independence. According to the data made public today, a
Yes answer to the first question (Do you want Catalonia to become a
state?) would win 57,6% Yes votes and 19,3% No votes. In the second
question (Do you want that state to be independent?) in which only those
who had voted Yes would answer, the Yes answer would receive 81.8% of
the votes; together that makes up 47% of the entire census. The No
answer to the second question would only receive 8.6%. Only one in ten
polled remain undecided. 11% said they wouldn’t vote at all.
However, it’s important to point out that while 47% would vote
Yes-Yes, the other 53% is divided between undecideds, abstentions and no
votes. So, there’s 47% for Yes-Yes, 19.3% for No, 11.5% for Yes-No,
11.5% abstentions and 11,2% undecided. Plus 0.9% who would vote blank or
null. Of course, final results are calculated without abstentions. Even
assuming that all of the undecided ended up voting No or Yes-No, which
is a lot to assume, the Yes-Yes still wins with 53% of the vote
(47%/88.5%—that is, the total Yes-Yes, minus the abstentions), No’s,
Yes-No’s, and Undecided-to-No’s get just 47.4% (19.3% + 11.5% +11.2% /
88.5%), and there would still a tiny amount of blank and null votes.
If undecided are not counted at all, (or are divided evenly) the
Yes-Yes vote rises to 61% (47% / 77.3%, that is, Yes-Yes over the total
minus Abstentions and Undecideds), while No’s and Yes-No’s would get
39.8%.
This is the first time that the CEO publishes a poll that includes a direct question about the November 9th referendum.
