CATALONIA -- Latest polls indicate Yes-Yes would earn 61% in Nov 9 independence referendum - VilaWeb
Latest polls indicate Yes-Yes would earn 61% in Nov 9 independence referendum - VilaWeb:
Latest polls indicate Yes-Yes would earn 61% in Nov 9 independence referendum
47% of the entire census would vote Yes-Yes, according to the CEO, 11.5% would abstain, 30.8% would vote No or Yes-No.
The latest polls organized by the Catalan government find that 47% of
the entire body of voters would vote Yes-Yes on the November 9th
referendum on independence. According to the data made public today, a
Yes answer to the first question (Do you want Catalonia to become a
state?) would win 57,6% Yes votes and 19,3% No votes. In the second
question (Do you want that state to be independent?) in which only those
who had voted Yes would answer, the Yes answer would receive 81.8% of
the votes; together that makes up 47% of the entire census. The No
answer to the second question would only receive 8.6%. Only one in ten
polled remain undecided. 11% said they wouldn't vote at all.
However,
it's important to point out that while 47% would vote Yes-Yes, the
other 53% is divided between undecideds, abstentions and no votes. So,
there's 47% for Yes-Yes, 19.3% for No, 11.5% for Yes-No, 11.5%
abstentions and 11,2% undecided. Plus 0.9% who would vote blank or null.
Of course, final results are calculated without abstentions. Even
assuming that all of the undecided ended up voting No or Yes-No, which
is a lot to assume, the Yes-Yes still wins with 53% of the vote
(47%/88.5%—that is, the total Yes-Yes, minus the abstentions), No's,
Yes-No's, and Undecided-to-No’s get just 47.4% (19.3% + 11.5% +11.2% /
88.5%), and there would still a tiny amount of blank and null votes.
If undecided are not counted at all, (or are divided evenly) the
Yes-Yes vote rises to 61% (47% / 77.3%, that is, Yes-Yes over the total
minus Abstentions and Undecideds), while No’s and Yes-No’s would get
39.8%.
This is the first time that the CEO publishes a poll that includes a direct question about the November 9th referendum.
CiU would win the elections with ERC at a close second
With
respect to the elections to the Parliament of Catalonia, CiU would win
once again, but would lose some 14 seats, for a balance of between
35-46. It would have ERC close at its heels with 34-35 seats, fourteen
more than presently. According to the CEO, the PSC, ICV-EUiA, and
Ciutadans would all win between 14-15 seats, the CUP would get between
7-9 and the PP would fall to 11 or 12.
CUP beats out PSC in direct vote intention
When
quantifying people's direct intention to vote, CUP would earn third
place, in front of PSC. So, if elections were held tomorrow for the
Parliament of Catalonia, 20% would vote ERC, 14,5% would vote CiU, 6.4%
for CUP, 6.1 for PSC, 5% ICV-EUiA, 4% for Ciutadans, and 1.6% for PP.
These figures don't transfer directly to percentages in the Parliament
due to territorial questions. For example, you need fewer votes in less
populated provinces than you do in the city (or province) of Barcelona.
David Fernàndez is the highest valued political leader
With
respect to out political leaders are valued, CUP MP David Fernàndez
gets the highest marks (5.47 out of 10), followed by Esquerra’s Oriol
Junqueras (5.45) and Josep Maria Terricabras (5.29). In 4th and 5th
place, with grades below 5, there is ICV’s Joan Herrera (4.94), and
CiU’s (President) Artur Mas (4.75).
Most PSC voters believe that an independent Catalonia will have the same level of social cohesion
More
than 60% of PSC voters believe that if Catalonia becomes independent,
Catalan citizens will get along together pretty much the same or better
as now. Specifically, 39% of PSC voters believe people will get along
the same and 9.6% believe people will get along better. On the other
hand, 38.8% believe it will be harder to get along, 10.9% don't know and
0.8% didn't answer. Across all Catalans, and not just PSC voters, 46%
that social cohesion will not change, 22% believe it will improve, 20,4%
believe it will deteriorate, and 10.9% didn't answer.
By party, the percentage of voters who believe that social cohesion
will stay the same as now there are 56.6% of ICV voters, 52.1% of CiU
voters, 50.5% of ERC. Esquerra and CUP voters are the ones who believe
that social cohesion will improve with independence: 40.2% of Esquerra
and 36.2% for CUP. Most PP and Ciutadans supporters believe that it will
be harder to get along.
CiU and ERC would tie in the European elections
With
respect to the European elections, Esquerra is forecast to receive
20.1% for the EU elections, a tenth more than CiU (20%). PSC would get
16.9% of the votes, PP 12.1% and ICV-EUiA 11.3%. Ciutadans could win as
much as 9.9% of the votes and UpyD 2.2%. The estimated turnout is about
42%, five points higher than in 2009.
Most Catalans see the "third rail" option as hardly possible or not likely at all.
65%
of Catalans think the "third rail" option is improbable: 31.5% believe
it is "hardly possible" and another 33.2% think it's "not likely at
all". By parties, most voters of CiU, ERC, ICV-EUiA and the CUP consider
it "hardly likely at all". 24.9% of PSC voters, in contrast, find it
"fairly possible" and 35.8% find it "hardly possible".
