CATALONIA -- Spain and Catalonia: Wars of Spanish secession | The Economist
Spain and Catalonia: Wars of Spanish secession | The Economist
Wars of Spanish secession
Catalonia is set on an independence vote, despite Madrid’s hostility
A CONFERENCE in Barcelona on April 24th drew both Spain’s prime
minister, Mariano Rajoy, and Catalonia’s premier, Artur Mas. But the two
avoided each other, another example of how Spain is failing to tackle
one of its thorniest problems: the future of this region of 7m people as
support for independence grows.
Talk of an independent Catalonia remains hypothetical. Yet all sides
of the political spectrum now talk of an impending “train crash”.
Catalonia is not Scotland, whose referendum on September 18th was
sanctioned by the British government. Spain’s parliament voted by a huge
majority last month to reject a request from the Catalan parliament for
an independence vote. Mr Mas plans a non-binding referendum on November
9th. But Mr Rajoy hopes to have it banned by the constitutional court.
What then?
Mr Mas is being pushed by forces beyond his control. His Convergence
and Union (CiU) coalition, which has backed Spain’s decentralised system
of 17 regional governments, trails the explicitly separatist Catalan
Republican Left (ERC) in the polls. These also show 55% support for
independence, and a far bigger majority wanting a vote. A pressure group
called the National Assembly of Catalonia (ANC) plans another massive
protest on Catalan national day in September, forming human mosaics of
world leaders whose support it wants. Barack Obama and Pope Francis may
find their giant portraits adorning the countryside. Pilar Rahola, who
advises Mr Mas, predicts that “two million people will be on the
streets.”
Mr Rajoy could call a referendum himself, but his conservative
People’s Party (PP) is not interested. He appears to hope that Spain’s
slow economic recovery will make the problem go away, pushing support
for independence back below 50%. But Catalan politicians say this is
unlikely.
The ANC is threatening civil disobedience and a unilateral
declaration of independence; ardent centralists mutter about Mr Rajoy
suspending Catalonia’s government and taking direct control. Either
option could provoke bitter confrontation. The violent invasion by
Spanish rightist thugs of a Catalan cultural centre in Madrid in
September and a punch given to the Catalan socialist leader, Pere
Navarro, by an angry woman on April 28th are worrying signs. “The
tension is getting worse,” says Mr Navarro.
The more likely outcome is that Mr Mas will call a new election which
separatist parties will treat as a plebiscite on independence, in
effect making it a referendum. That would shunt confrontation off. But
it is unclear when any election might be called. Mr Mas could wait until
2016, after Spain’s general election next year. But he will be pressed
to move sooner. A new separatist government would then come under
pressure from hardliners to make a unilateral declaration of
independence.
Two parties offer a middle way. The junior partner in Mr Mas’s CiU
coalition, the Catalan Democratic Union, wants a solution based on a
confederation. That might keep Spain together while allowing Catalans to
claim that they are sovereign. It has also been backed by a Basque
leader, Iñigo Urkullu, whose Basque Nationalist Party wants more
autonomy. Mr Navarro’s socialists defend a Catalan right to
self-determination if approved by Madrid, and want a federal answer for
Spain. But this would need a constitutional change that requires PP
support.
A more immediate idea is that Mr Mas and Mr Rajoy should talk. But
that is unlikely to happen until after the European election later this
month. The train crash comes ever closer.
