The CEO has asked the question agreed on among a majority of parties
in December 2013 for the original consultation vote, which will also be
used in November 9's alternative participatory process. However, they
have not linked this question to any specific day or type of vote, only
asking it in general terms and not linking it to the participatory
process of November 9. 2,000 people of 18 years and above were
interviewed, representing a 2.69% margin of error. Interviews took place
between the 29th of September and the 23rd of
October; therefore on the first day people that the Constitutional Court
had already temporarily suspended the original consultation vote.
49.4% of Catalans would vote for independence
49.4% of citizens have directly answered that they would vote with a
double "yes" to the question, meaning they back independence from Spain.
According to the CEO's Director, Jordi Argelaguet, if this voting
intention were nuanced with previous electoral results and voter
profiles, the pro-independence percentage could represent between 53%
and 55%. In addition, those supporting the creation of a Catalan State
but being against full independence would represent 12.6% of the voters.
Finally, those totally against a Catalan State, regardless of if it
were independent or not, would represent 19.7%. However, Argelaguet also
added that the number of those voting "no" to independence could
increase if a proper referendum finally takes place with all the
democratic guarantees.
The ERC would win the next Catalan elections but would not get the absolute majority
In addition, the CEO also asked about voting intention in
hypothetical early elections of the Catalan Parliament. The ERC, led by
Oriol Junqueras, would get 23.2% of the direct vote, which would make
them obtain between 38 and 39 seats, far from the 68-seat absolute
majority in the 135-seat Catalan Parliament. However, they would win
elections for the first time, ahead of the governing CiU, which is led
by the Catalan President, Artur Mas. The CiU would get 19.4% of the
direct vote and between 32 and 33 seats, its worst result ever. Both
combined, they would get the absolute majority (70-72 seats). Currently
the ERC has 21 seats and the CiU, 50.
The Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) would come in third place, with
11.2% of the votes and 14 or 16 seats. Currently the PSC has 20 seats.
The People's Party (PP), which runs the Spanish Government, would get
8.6% of the direct votes in Catalonia, obtaining between 11 and 13
seats. Currently the PP has 19 MPs.
The most significant change from the current situation, besides the
ERC overtaking the CiU, is that alternative left Podemos would enter
into the Catalan Parliament for the first time, obtaining 8.5% of direct
vote intention and between 10 and 11 seats. The recently-founded
Podemos supports Catalonia's right to self-determination but is against
independence. It is the most vocal party against corruption and is
proposing to entirely rebuild Spain's political system. It was the big
surprise in the last European Parliament Elections.
The 6th, 7th and 8th parties would
get very similar results, with all of them obtaining between 8 and 9
MPs. The Catalan green socialist and post-communist coalition ICV-EUiA
would get 7.2% of the votes. The ICV-EUiA would lose seats from the
current 13 MPs. The populist and anti-Catalan nationalist party
Ciutadans (C's) would obtain 7% of the votes and would get a similar
number of seats (currently it has 9 MPs). Finally the alternative left
and Catalan independence party would get 6.5% of the votes and would
almost triple its representation, since it currently has 3 MPs.
