By TruePublica editor: Many of the national newspapers have
recently reported that Theresa May’s Brexit deal will come at a
substantial cost to the economy. The Guardian reported, as many others
did a few days ago that – “Theresa May’s Brexit deal
is expected to cost the UK economy as much as £100bn over the next
decade compared with remaining in the EU, according to one of the
country’s leading economic thinktanks.” But this is not actually true.
The Guardian said – “An analysis of the prime minister’s EU withdrawal agreement from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) suggested that by 2030, Britain would lose GDP growth equivalent to the annual economic output of Wales.”
The actual statement put out by the NIESR was – “Our assessment
is that trade with the EU, especially in services, will be more costly
after Brexit. This is likely to have an adverse effect on living
standards in the UK. Our central estimate is that if the government’s
proposed Brexit deal is implemented, then GDP in the longer term will be
around 4 per cent lower than it would have been had the UK stayed in
the EU. This is roughly equivalent to losing the annual output of Wales
or the output of the financial services industry in London. This is
equivalent to a loss of 3 per cent in GDP per head, worth around £1,000
per annum on average to people in the UK.”
