martes, 6 de junio de 2017

UK General Election: Already A Victory - TruePublica

UK General Election: Already A Victory - TruePublica

 

By Craig Murray:
We cannot know what will happen on Thursday. There are huge
differentials in opinion polls. We now know that the pollsters’ samples,
demographically weighted to reflect the population in terms of age,
geographical spread, and past voting intention, return very similar
results. What differs is the extent to which they apply the additional
filter of judging likelihood to vote, not by people’s declaration on
this point, but by historic records reflecting the fact turnout is much
higher among the elderly. That in itself has thrown a spotlight on the
massive age differential in voting. The Tories are extremely dependent
on pensioners. It is precisely the same age group that supported Brexit
and opposed Independence.


 


There has been some drop in Tory support among the elderly in the
election, but only in line with the drop in the general population. The
abandonment of the triple lock, the dementia tax and the end of winter
fuel allowance have not particularly dented the loyalty of the Tory grey
army.

 UK General Election: Already A Victory