Uganda is a country that many people seem to have heard of, but barely anyone except the locals knows anything about.
Nestled near the divided but resource-rich Central African
region, yet still technically part of the integrating and market-focused
East African one, Uganda could serve as a critical bridgehead in
linking together two dynamic areas of the continent, but as of now it
presently functions as a solid buffer in preventing the former’s
militant problems from undermining the latter’s economic growth.
China wants to change all of that by turning Uganda into the
ultimate infrastructure juncture, building upon its mighty military sway
to turn the “African Prussia” into the “African Kazakhstan”, or in
other words, a transregional land bridge of unparalleled geostrategic
significance.
This commendable vision isn’t without its obvious shortcomings,
however, since Hybrid War tension has been continuously building under
the surface in Uganda for the past twenty years or so. The threat of a
‘conventional’ Color Revolution or a EuroMaidan-like outbreak of urban
terrorism is ever-present in the country, and this asymmetrical danger
is perhaps the security services’ most pressing challenge. Aside from
that, however, are other less-recognized risks that could prove to be
equally challenging for the Ugandan leadership, such as the potential
for a manufactured “Clash of Civilizations” and Identity (“Kingdom”)
Federalism. Upon closer examination, Uganda’s strategic situation isn’t
as clear-cut as one might initially think that it was, and despite
President Museveni’s legacy dream of
guiding his East African Community peers towards an EU-like federation,
it might ironically turn out that his country is the one that the US
uses to undermine the entire project.
