Strategic scenarios surrounding prolonged Kurdish insurgency in Turkey (II) | Oriental Review
Strategic scenarios surrounding prolonged Kurdish insurgency in Turkey (II) | Oriental Review
Having grasped an understanding of the geostrategic imperatives
motivating the four main state actors most directly involved in and
affected by the Kurdish insurgency, it’s now time to put everything
together in forecasting a few of the most likely scenarios that this
explosive mix can result in. Basically, the scenario progression works
as such – the first one describes the opening stage of the conflict and
should be closely investigated and immediately monitored in order to see
which direction it’s headed in. Depending on the eventual geopolitical
affiliation of the Kurds, the situation will start developing in
accordance with the precepts of either the second or third scenarios. At
last, the fourth scenario is more like the final step that the US will
take in guiding events towards its most advantageous benefit, and it can
thus be seen as the last possible strategic scenario capable of being
predicted within somewhat of an accurate degree of knowledge at this
given moment.
