Saudi Arabia is on the Brink of Regime Change
It
seems that Saudi Arabia has started to undergo the transformation
various experts predicted. Those became obvious when the sitting king
Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud replaced his deceased elder brother
Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al Saud in January 2015, and made a number of
quite unusual arrangements within the ruling elite, appointing the head
of the Ministry of Interior Muhammad bin Nayef from Abdullah’s clan the Crown Prince, while his 33-year-old son Mohammad bin Salman Al Saudfrom the Sudairy clan received the appointment of Deputy Crown Prince. Even back then it was clear that within a short period of time the king would try to hand over all power in the country to his own son by sidestepping Muhammad bin Nayef,
while he himself would retire due to Alzheimer’s disease, becoming sort
of a “king-father” with no real power, but with the right to an
advisory vote on important decisions. Needless to say, it’s a direct
violation of the tradition of succession to the throne from brother to
brother that has been in place in Saudi Arabia, that is going to be
replaced by the father-to-son succession. To make such a transition one
should be able to carry out a coup d’etat or win the approval of the
succession board, which is formed according to different sources by 7 or
11 members of the Al Saud dynasty.
seems that Saudi Arabia has started to undergo the transformation
various experts predicted. Those became obvious when the sitting king
Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud replaced his deceased elder brother
Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al Saud in January 2015, and made a number of
quite unusual arrangements within the ruling elite, appointing the head
of the Ministry of Interior Muhammad bin Nayef from Abdullah’s clan the Crown Prince, while his 33-year-old son Mohammad bin Salman Al Saudfrom the Sudairy clan received the appointment of Deputy Crown Prince. Even back then it was clear that within a short period of time the king would try to hand over all power in the country to his own son by sidestepping Muhammad bin Nayef,
while he himself would retire due to Alzheimer’s disease, becoming sort
of a “king-father” with no real power, but with the right to an
advisory vote on important decisions. Needless to say, it’s a direct
violation of the tradition of succession to the throne from brother to
brother that has been in place in Saudi Arabia, that is going to be
replaced by the father-to-son succession. To make such a transition one
should be able to carry out a coup d’etat or win the approval of the
succession board, which is formed according to different sources by 7 or
11 members of the Al Saud dynasty.
Now
it seems that the wheels of the political machine are moving again.
Last week reports from Riyadh indicated that his disease is taking a
toll on the king and he wants to renounce his reign in favor of the
Crown Prince. But then neighboring states, especially Qatar and the
United Arab Emirates, started hinting that the members of the Saudi
royal family along with the sheikhs of the strongest tribes, which are
the foundation of Al Saud’s rule, are extremely dissatisfied with the
sharp deterioration of the economic and social situation in the country,
leading to a major drop in their personal incomes. It is no secret that
Riyadh increased the volume of oil production to weaken the positions
of its main competitors – Russia, Iran and Venezuela. But the kingdom
had to take a punch as well, it was forced to unseal its reserve fund and cut the funding of numerous social programs.
it seems that the wheels of the political machine are moving again.
Last week reports from Riyadh indicated that his disease is taking a
toll on the king and he wants to renounce his reign in favor of the
Crown Prince. But then neighboring states, especially Qatar and the
United Arab Emirates, started hinting that the members of the Saudi
royal family along with the sheikhs of the strongest tribes, which are
the foundation of Al Saud’s rule, are extremely dissatisfied with the
sharp deterioration of the economic and social situation in the country,
leading to a major drop in their personal incomes. It is no secret that
Riyadh increased the volume of oil production to weaken the positions
of its main competitors – Russia, Iran and Venezuela. But the kingdom
had to take a punch as well, it was forced to unseal its reserve fund and cut the funding of numerous social programs.
And then came the execution of 47 Shia
public figures, including the popular human rights activist Nimr Baqir
al-Nimr. The executions were designed as a form of retaliation to Iran
and Hezbollah for the help they have provided to the Syrian people in
the fight against pro-Saudi militants. This step provoked massive unrest
in the Shia areas of the kingdom, the areas that produce the better
part of all Saudi oil. The country has found itself on the brink of a
civil war and a military conflict with Iran at the same time, which has
also provoked major discontent in the West. After all, the West needs a
politically loyal Iran, a country in which huge investments can be made,
especially in oil and gas sectors, in order to push Russian out of the
European gas market and the international oil markets at the same time.
In this context Tehran is forced to carry on relying on Moscow in the
confrontation with Saudi Arabia to ensure its safety and continue
providing military assistance to Syria, Iraq and Shia rebels in Yemen.
First appeared: http://journal-neo.org/2016/01/23/saudi-arabia-is-on-the-brink-of-regime-change/
public figures, including the popular human rights activist Nimr Baqir
al-Nimr. The executions were designed as a form of retaliation to Iran
and Hezbollah for the help they have provided to the Syrian people in
the fight against pro-Saudi militants. This step provoked massive unrest
in the Shia areas of the kingdom, the areas that produce the better
part of all Saudi oil. The country has found itself on the brink of a
civil war and a military conflict with Iran at the same time, which has
also provoked major discontent in the West. After all, the West needs a
politically loyal Iran, a country in which huge investments can be made,
especially in oil and gas sectors, in order to push Russian out of the
European gas market and the international oil markets at the same time.
In this context Tehran is forced to carry on relying on Moscow in the
confrontation with Saudi Arabia to ensure its safety and continue
providing military assistance to Syria, Iraq and Shia rebels in Yemen.
First appeared: http://journal-neo.org/2016/01/23/saudi-arabia-is-on-the-brink-of-regime-change/
