CATALONIA -- Catalan News Agency - Catalan Government's Advisory Council: an independent Catalonia would not be excluded from the EU

Catalan News Agency - Catalan Government's Advisory Council: an independent Catalonia would not be excluded from the EU

Catalan Government's Advisory Council: an independent Catalonia would not be excluded from the EU

CNA

Barcelona (ACN).- An independent Catalonia would benefit
from transition measures that would guarantee the continuity of European
Union agreements, including staying within the Schengen Area and the
Euro Zone. This is the most likely scenario in the event of independence
from Spain, according to the Catalan Government's Advisory Council for
the National Transition (CATN), which is a body formed of independent
and prestigious academics. The CATN is issuing a series of reports on
different aspects related to self-determination and a hypothetical
independent Catalan state. A few months ago it suggested that an
independent Catalonia would work closely with Spain as an ally. Now,
this expert group emphasises that there is "no legal basis" for stating
that Catalonia would be automatically expelled from the EU the moment it
became independent or to affirm that it would automatically join the
Union as a new Member State. There is no provision in the Treaties and
there are no precedents. Therefore the report concludes that Catalonia's
EU membership will be decided in a negotiation process where political
and economic interests will be at play.

On Monday, the Catalan Government's Advisory Council for the National Transition (CATN) presented its 6^th
report from an ongoing series of analyses on different aspects related
to Catalonia's self-determination process and its hypothetical
independence from Spain. The CATN's mission is to provide thorough
analyses on different legal and reasonable scenarios, for instance on
possible ways to call for a self-determination vote, how to build the tax authority of an independent Catalan state
in order to be ready from day 1, or what would happen with the EU
membership of an independent Catalonia. The CATN provides expert advice
to the Catalan Government and gives information to society in the midst
of the public debate about Catalonia's political future. It is chaired
by Carles Viver i Pi-Sunyer, Chair of Constitutional Law at the
Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF) and former member of Spain's
Constitutional Court. It is composed of 14 members, most of them holding
chairs in Law, Political Science, Economics and Sociology at different
Catalan universities, such the UB, UAB, UPF and ESADE, or at Princenton
University in the case of Carles Boix.

Catalonia's EU Membership to be resolved by negotiation according to political and economic interests

In 'Les vies d'integració de Catalunya a la Unió Europea' ('The
integration ways of Catalonia within the European Union') the CATN
analyses whether an independent Catalonia would be in or out of the EU.
The report emphasises the will of a majority of Catalan society to
remain within the EU, but it also reflects on the uncertainties of such
membership. The report concludes that there are no definitive legal
arguments for an automatic expulsion or the opposite, for an automatic
continuity. This is to say there are "no legal bases" to sustain the
argument that an independent Catalonia would be automatically excluded
from the EU and all EU agreements would cease to apply. In the same way,
there are "no legal bases" to support the idea that an independent
Catalonia would be automatically be part of the EU as a new Member
State. The CATN emphasises that the Treaties do not say what to do in
such a scenario and that there are no precedents. Therefore, they
conclude that Treaties will have to be interpreted and this could be
done either in more open or more restrictive ways, following a
negotiation process that will be based on political and economic
interests.

In fact, the Catalan Executive has always considered EU membership of
an independent Catalonia a political issue, to be decided in talks that
would take place during the independence process. However, the Spanish
Government has used EU membership as its main argument to persuade
Catalans to oppose independence, spreading fear and doubts.

The Spanish Government's main argument is that Catalonia would be kicked out of the EU

The Spanish Government has been insisting that an independent
Catalonia would automatically be kicked out of the EU. The Spanish Prime
Minister stated last week before Parliament that an
independent Catalonia "would be the most similar thing to Robinson
Crusoe's island", being isolated "from the EU, the Euro, the United
Nations and all the international treaties". Instead of launching a
seduction campaign to convince Catalans to remain within Spain, the
Spanish Government's strategy is based on a frontal opposition to
independence, interpreting the current Constitution in a restrictive way
and from a Spanish nationalist point of view. In addition, its second
line of action is to scare Catalans by saying that if they vote for
independence they would "roam across space", being "excluded from the European Union for the centuries of the centuries", as the Spanish Foreign Affairs Minister, José Manuel García-Margallo, stated a month ago.

In fact, Madrid has been pressuring the EU institutions to state that
an independent Catalonia would be automatically out of the Union.
However, the European Commission has stated no such thing, at least not
with the clarity and strength Madrid wanted. EU authorities such as
Commissioners, official Spokespersons and even the institution's
President, José Manuel Durao Barroso, have stated that "as a general
principle, if a part of a Member State were to secede, EU Treaties would
no longer applicable" and "it would become a third country", which
"would have to re-apply for Membership". However, at the same time, they
have stressed that this is "a general principle" and that they would
have to analyse "specific cases" on the basis of "detailed scenarios" in
order to provide a definitive answer on Catalonia's or Scotland's
cases. The "general principle" to consider a part that secedes as "a
third country" is based on an answer given by the Prodi Commission in
2004 to a question from a Member of the European Parliament regarding
Algeria’s hypothetical EU Membership after becoming independent from
France.

The European Commission has been sending contradictory messages

Now, when Barroso stated in an interview in the UK that an
independent Scotland would be out of the EU, the day after the European
Commission's Spokesperson Service quickly corrected its President with a
reminder that this was not the institution's official stance on
Scotland's independence and its EU membership. In fact, the European
Commission has repeated on many occasions that it will only assess what
would happen with Catalonia and Scotland after the specific request from
a Member State Government providing "a detailed scenario", and such a
request has never been filed, either by London or by Madrid. Therefore,
this lack of specific, clear and definitive answers from Brussels
confirms that things are not crystal clear regarding the EU membership
of an independent Catalonia or Scotland. In fact, before the pressures
from the Spanish Government, Viviane Reding, Commissioner for Justice,
Fundamental Rights and Citizenship, had stated in an interview with the
‘Diario de Sevilla’ in 2012 that according to EU Treaties an independent
Catalonia would not be automatically expelled from the Union. Following
the complaints from Madrid, a few days later she corrected her words.
Joaquin Almunia, the Spanish Vice President of the European Commission,
did a similar thing in October 2012, when he said that “it
would be dishonest [...] to give a strict answer” as to whether a
separated part of a Member State would still be part of the EU. The
European Commissioner for Competition explained back then that “the
question is not a black and white one” and “it has many nuances”.

Neither EU Membership nor exclusion are automatic

In the report the CATN says that the EU's decision is not automatic
in any sense, since EU Treaties do not clearly and explicitly state what
to do in such a case and there are no precedents. The CATN states that
there are legal arguments in defence of four different scenarios, and
therefore deciding which one to choose will be the result of how EU
legislation is being interpreted, following negotiations based on
political and economic interests. The advisory council emphasises that
the EU has been particularly flexible interpreting the legislation on
many occasions, such as during the ratification of the Maastricht Treaty
or the EU Constitution. In addition, the EU has traditionally backed
whichever formula was enlarging the Union and fostering European
integration, rather than the one that was reducing its size and going
against integration and building barriers to free trade.

Continuing within Schengen and the Euro without interruption the most likely scenario

The CATN lists a series of arguments for four different scenarios
regarding the EU membership of an independent Catalonia: firstly,
staying within the EU as a new Member State from day 1; secondly, going
through a transition period that would guarantee that EU law and
agreements are still applicable but not automatically becoming a new
Member State; thirdly, being excluded from the EU but being recognised
as a candidate to join the Union; and lastly, being expelled for many
years from the Union without any foreseeable prospect of joining the
list of Member State candidates. The CATN analyses the probability of
each scenario and states that the most likely one is the second, which
it calls "ad hoc membership". In this scenario, an independent
Catalonia would continue within the Schengen Area and the Euro Zone, and
all EU legislation and agreements would continue to be in place without
any interruption while Catalonia's definitive status as an official EU
Member State was being negotiated and approved, a process that could
take years. Therefore, in practical terms, in this scenario citizens,
tourists and companies would not see any difference, but Catalonia would
not be officially and automatically an EU Member State from day 1 and
would have to go through a recognition process. The report bases its
conclusions on EU legislation and arguments linked to political and
economic interests.

A total exclusion would harm the entire EU on the economic and political levels

The report rules out the total exclusion scenario, since it would
economically harm not only Catalonia but also Spain and the whole EU.
The exclusion would harm both the EU institutions – since Catalonia has
been a net contributor to the EU budget for decades – and the economy –
since Catalonia's GDP is the size of Portugal's or Finland's (with huge
banks and multinationals) and many European companies operate from
Catalonia and have billions invested there. This would create an
economic instability which could seriously harm the entire European
economy. The report also considers that the third scenario, being
excluded from the EU but at the same time joining the list of candidates
to become a Member State, is not very likely either, since the economic
damage would be quite similar to the fourth case, as EU law and
agreements would be interrupted for months or years.

In addition, on the political side, excluding 7.5 million Catalans
from EU citizenship because they peacefully and democratically voted to
become independent would harm the EU as a project based on the
democratic principle, spreading peace and stability. It would be the EU
deciding to put in borders again and creating instability in the core of
Western Europe, right next to France. On top of this, if Spain did not
recognise an independent Catalonia as a state, EU law would continue to
be applicable in Catalonia since EU law would continue to be applicable
in Spain. In addition, Spanish citizenship could not be taken away, so
Catalans would continue to be Spanish citizens and therefore EU
citizens. And if Spain was recognising Catalonia’s independence, then
there would be little reasons to punish Catalonia with an exclusion from
the EU that will ruin most of the possibilities of strengthening
stability and a fruitful and loyal cooperation between the two
countries.

The advisory council also analyses what would happen if there is no
agreement with the Spanish Government for a negotiated independence. In
this scenario, if Catalonia can prove it has been trying to find a
negotiated solution to the self-determination demands but Spain has
constantly been blocking such an agreement and has refused to even talk
about it, the EU institutions could not ignore this fact. In this case,
they should take into account the democratic will peacefully expressed
by a majority of the Catalan population through several electoral
processes and analyse the behaviour of both sides of the conflict "under
the prism of the democracy, loyal cooperation, good faith and
proportionality principles".

Alternatives to EU Membership: EFTA, the EEA or bilateral agreements

The report also analyses possible alternatives for Catalonia if it
was excluded from the EU, although the CATN insists that this is not the
most likely scenario. Catalonia could join the European Free Trade
Association (EFTA), which is formed by Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway
and Switzerland. To join this organisation, EFTA Member State
governments have to unanimously accept the new country, but considering
Catalonia's social and economic development, and its democratic
tradition, this possibility has a few chances to be successful, although
nothing is guaranteed. Furthermore, all EFTA states but Switzerland are
part of the European Economic Area (EEA), which forms a single market
with EU countries, without borders and custom duties. However, being
part of the EEA has to be ratified by all the participating countries,
including Spain, although there are alternative formulas, which are not
detailed in the report.

In addition, the report also states that EU institutions can approve
bilateral agreements with third countries. If the agreement is on
exclusively EU powers, such as international trade, individual Member
States cannot veto them. However, certain agreements require a unanimous
approval. In such a scenario, the CATN advocates first reaching
association agreements on the matters that cannot be vetoed by a Member
State and then expanding such agreements at a later stage. Finally the
advisory council also considers the threats of being excluded from the
international order and the United Nations. It gives very little
credibility to such threats but points out that the EU institutions
could start the recognition process. In addition, in order to apply to
become a member of EFTA or to negotiate EU Membership or the transition
agreements, the CATN highlights that this could be done in the months
before becoming independent.

More on

Advisory Council, Catalan Government, Catalan Independence, Democracy, Durao Barroso, EU Membership, European Commission, European Union, Independence, José Manuel García-Margallo, Mariano Rajoy, Referendum, Scotland, Self-Determination, Vote

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The Catalan Government's Advisory Council for the National Transition met this Monday (by P. Mateos)

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Related links

http://premsa.gencat.cat/pres_fsvp/docs/2014/04/14/16/56/1306bad3-6a4c-4027-a013-8dba98347ffe-1.pdf